Posts Tagged ‘Long Term Thinking’

Stewart Brand’s How Buildings Learn BBC Series

Wednesday, August 13th, 2008

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Stewart Brand’s book, How Buildings Learn, is one of the best design/architecture books I’ve ever read. It rails against the spartan, impractical, and wasteful aesthetic of “magazine architects” — those designers whose buildings are conceived more as a piece of art than a functioning building, like the MIT Media lab by IM Pei pictured on the right.

It’s a study of buildings and spaces after being built, an important and oft neglected facet of the architectural field.

The accompanying BBC series is similarly down to earth and practical. It takes someone with a particular straightforwardness and insight to interview the men who wash the windows on Frank Gehry’s Prague-based Dancing House, rather than the superstar architect himself.

The whole 6-part series has been put on Google Video. Watch parts One, Two, Three, Four, Five, and Six, all for free, of course.

Via Kottke.

When The Mundane Becomes Interesting

Wednesday, August 6th, 2008

Marlboro-Baby.jpgAt my recent visit to the Long Now Foundation’s talk by Ed Burtynksy, the organization’s founder Stewart Brand, author of the great How Building’s Learn, made an observation about mundanity I thought was interesting:

In a nutshell, it was that when reading a contemporary magazine, people generally try to skip the ads. When reading a vintage magazine, however, people often skip to the ads.

What is it about the passage of time that makes something like a magazine ad so interesting, while the articles become less interesting?

There are a lot of answers to that question, but that isn’t the point. It was just a simple observation I enjoyed and wanted to share.

Quick Links

Monday, August 4th, 2008

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Abandoned Pools

Walking Turcot Yards has a great link to a photo series of unused pools.

In the Thirties London’s outdoor lidos were at the peak of their popularity.

Gradually tastes have changed, resulting in a drop in attendances,

leaving the pools uneconomical to run.

Many fell into decay and many were demolished.

Only a handful of pools remain today as a symbol of a bygone era.

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Boing Boing TV Covers Long Now Clock

The Long Now Foundation is trying to build a clock which will run without human intervention for 10,000 years. It’s a marvelous and amazing piece of engineering. When visiting the Long Now in San Francisco, I tried to take photos of the prototypes of the various pieces, but low light left me with some grainy unusable photos. Thankfully, Boing Boing TV has a great piece about the various components of the clock, which I can attest were absolutely stunning.

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Reaction Ferry

A reaction ferry is a motor-less barge that is anchored to the shore by a rope or cable, and uses only the current of the river to move back and forth.They aren’t much in use anymore, but they exist in a few places.

Ed Burtynsky’s Gallery of the Long Now

Monday, August 4th, 2008

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Burtynsky is generally known for his large-format prints of man-made landscapes like quarries, factories or dams. He has also recently released his film, Manufactured Landscapes, and founded the environmental site WorldChanging.Org.

Being a general fan of the man, I couldn’t help but jump at the opportunity to see him speak when my recent trip to San Francisco happened to coincide with his presentation as part of the Long Now Foundation’s lecture series on long-term thinking. (( If you aren’t familiar with the Long Now, they’re a non-profit dedicated to promoting the concept of long-term thinking over the short-sighted instant-gratification which seems all too prevalent in our society these days. It’s a wonderfully nebulous goal for an organization, and I’m proud to be a card-carrying member. ))

As well as showing many of his fantastic photographs, Burtynsky was charged with looking into techniques for preserving images for 10,000 years. His recommendation was to use an obscure and little-used technique called Carbon Printing, which is done commercially by less than a dozen small shops worldwide. It’s particularly expensive, labour intensive, and difficult, but the final product is incredibly stable and resistant to degradation. The ink is literally crushed stone of different colours suspended by gelatin. The Magenta stone is only obtainable from a small mine in Germany, and the gelatin used by the process is so pure that the small shops employing the process need to band together to commission special small batches from gelatin manufacturers, because nobody makes anything with the purity needed on a regular basis.

Resilience

Tuesday, July 22nd, 2008

Resilience Theory attempts to analyze what makes ecological systems resilient, and use that as guidelines for applying it to a huge variety of other fields. The goal is to make systems resilient to unknown future shocks which might disrupt the system. One of the central tenets of the idea is that we won’t necessarily know what those disruptions will be, but we know that certain conditions will be more resilient to shocks than others. It is an extremely cross-disciplinary approach that attempts to explain phenomena in a wide variety of areas.

For example, ecological systems are generally most resilient when they exhibit large amounts of biodiversity. If the environment changes suddenly, chances are higher in a widely diverse system that at least some members of that system will be able to adapt into new niches.

Monocultures can be extremely effective for a time, but failures in the system can often be catastrophic. The Irish, for example, thrived for a time almost exclusively on potatoes, until the potato blight destroyed a huge portion of the crop and led to the starvation of millions. Many businesses thrive doing one thing extremely well, only to suffer when the market changed (think Polaroid, for example, which is slowly collapsing because of their reliance on the instant film market, which is itself in rapid decline).

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This concept could also apply to many other facets of society. Our utter reliance on oil might soon prove to be an excellent example, as our supply looks ever more depleted, and rising costs look to make oil and its byproducts more expensive. We are utterly dependent on cheap oil for transportation, heating, and agriculture, but we aren’t working as hard as we could to create viable alternatives. Resilience theory posits that moving away from our dependance on oil would be good not just for the environment, it would also make our society more resilient to unknown shocks. We should have known better than to be so utterly reliant on something as unstable as oil.

This is just the very tip of the iceberg – the field looks at different states of equilibrium and attempts to show how and why systems balance themselves in different states, and how systems can often tip very quickly from one self-organized state to another. If global warming increases temperatures much more than 2 degrees centigrade, it’s worried that a bevy of further events – evaporating methane reserves under the arctic, desertification of the Amazon rainforest, and changes in reflective albedo could usher in a sort of quick flip to an even hotter state of equilibrium in a very short time. By all accounts it is extremely important to avoid hitting that point. The closer we move to it, the greater our risk.


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A diagram showing two hypothetical steady states as balls lying on a curved surface. If the ball is pushed beyond a certain point, it might be pushed past a peak, at which point it could fall into a different trough.

An important aspect of Resilience theory is to study how and why these sudden shifts, or regime changes, take place. A standard maximization approach on a system (let’s say fisheries) may, in an attempt to get the highest possible yields, come closer to a threshold of regime change than they otherwise should. Resilience theory makes a point of studying how this works, and urges caution in such areas.

buzzholl11.jpg“Our focus should not be on constancy,” says father of resilience study Buzz Holling, “but on variability. Not on single equilibrium, but on events far from equilibria at the stability boundaries. That’s where the action was, that’s where evolution took place. That’s where the turbulence of nature occured upon which adaptive changes created new species, or new policies . . . these systems have multi-stable states, and they can flip from one to another. And if you don’t attend to the boundaries of stability, you’re losing the game. Variability is extremely important . . .”

Holling also cites a somewhat predictable cycle of boom, bust, and renewal which can be applied to everything from businesses, to forests, to ocean fisheries, to politics. Holling describes a business becoming very effective at one thing, specializing, becoming dependent on than one thing, becoming too rigid and resistant to change, going bust and then rebuilding itself with a new board and new direction as being rather similar to a forest maturing from a diverse polycultural grassland, into an old growth forest before being gutted by a forest fire and reverting back to small and diverse growth.

Frankfurt Suburbs from the Air

Tuesday, July 8th, 2008

As oil becomes ever more expensive, the peak oil theory is making our car-centric suburbs look like more of a burden than a blessing. Urban planners like Jane Jacobs and Christopher Alexander have been criticizing suburbs for decades, though mostly for social rather than economic reasons. I personally couldn’t imagine myself living in a cookie-cutter house in the suburbs, or living in a place that was more than a few minutes walk to a park, cafĂ©, community centre, bakery, subway, restaurants, and grocery store.

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This is a photo I snapped out the window of the plane as we were landing in Frankfurt, Germany. It’s a suburb, but it isn’t suburban in the North American sense. It’s small enough to easily walk across, yet large enough to have a station on the regional commuter rail line (and trust me, there isn’t much that the Germans seem to love more than their trains).

Quick Links

Monday, July 7th, 2008

Oily Speculation

The New Yorker on why the current massive spikes in oil prices are not related to speculators, as many people seem to be indicating. The American Congress is hard at work promising a quick fix by reigning in speculation, we should have reason to believe that there won’t be an easy solution to the problem. Via Big Contrarian.

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Shneiderman’s Eight Golden Rules of Interface Design

Simple and quick.

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Hybrid Car Porn

Some supposed upcoming hybrid cars from most of the major manufacturers. Aside from the Prius, this crop is mostly still-rather-bad hybrid SUV’s and unrealistic concept cars, which generally have no bearing on what comes to market (case in point: the “green” Hummer O2 concept from last year, which was ridiculous beyond words, and yet garnered much attention).

100 Oldest Companies in the World

Thursday, June 19th, 2008

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The Long Views Blog has pointed me to an interesting list of the oldest companies in the world. It’s interesting to see the factors which allow a company to last for so long. They are generally small, family-owned, extremely specialized, and renowned for the quality of their products.

The first one on the list that I recognized was #32 cymbal-maker Zildjian, which was founded in Istanbul in 1623, which was followed closely by Kikkoman, a soy-sauce maker founded in Japan seven years later.

Demise of the SUV

Friday, June 13th, 2008

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Wired has a report on the recent collapse of the SUV and truck market in the U.S., which have taken a rather sharp nosedive these past few months. Some analysts seem to believe it’s a change that’s here to stay. Jesse Toprak on CNNMoney is quoted in the article as saying “Even if gas prices go down for a month or two, consumers are not going to rush back out and buy SUVs. This appears to be a permanent shift”. While I don’t think oil prices are going to go down any time soon, I’m not so sure that people wouldn’t rush back to SUV’s and trucks if they did. In any case, a few months of sales don’t mean a whole lot. North Americans love big things, and I’m not so sure the mental shift can happen that fast.

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I would be happy to see North Americans adopt a more European outlook on cars (and houses, and food for that matter) in going for quality over quantity. Pictured here is the Mercedes A-Class (( Photo credit to Flickr user Dirk1812, used under a Creative Commons License )) , a luxury subcompact sold in the European market. They were super-popular in Germany, but go directly against the North American penchant for size over everything else, which, as mentioned, seems just as prevalent in our homes and on our plates.

I would be pleased to see an overnight shift to compacts, hybrids, and bicycles. This is, however, more likely going to be a slow move to small trucks, so-called “crossovers” like the amusingly aptly name Buick Enclave, and mid-size cars.

German Hospitality, Or Paying What Things are Worth

Wednesday, May 14th, 2008

Sometimes a practice becomes so pervasive that it almost goes unnoticed. Case in point – hotels pretty much always try to charge you a whole lot for extra services. All hotels seem to do it. The proverbial 6 Euro bottle of water in the mini-bar is a great example. Sure, it makes money for the hotels in the short run, but it makes them come off as greedy, at least in my eyes.

I didn’t realize how bad things were until I stayed in a hotel that doesn’t do it. I recently had the pleasure of staying in the Hotel Excelsior in Frankfurt, Germany. It wasn’t the nicest hotel – it was pretty average in most ways. It was cheap and well located, but not fancy in the least. The difference came from the extras. Free internet in the room, free coffee and cake in the lobby at all times, free newspapers, free phone calls within Germany, and most impressively – free mini-bar.

228901.jpgAfter a long day strolling around Frankfurt, it was extremely satisfying to come back to two-bottles each of mineral water (sparkling and non), juice, pepsi, and even beer. The cost was negligible for the hotel, but it made us feel like they were taking care of us rather than gouging us for money.

Now, I understand that none of these were truly free – they were included in the price of our room. The important factor was that all the costs were up front – there we no hidden fees.

I have to imagine that it makes sense for the hotel as well – they go from being just another low cost hotel to “that hotel with the free mini bar”, a small distinction, but one that people will talk about.